Trends in AIDS incidence and mortality rates in the HAART-era, Brazil, 1998-2008
T.C.R. Oliveira1, M.R.D.O. Latorre1, A.M. Silva1, L.F. Tanaka1, H.H.S. Marques2
1University of Sao Paulo, Epidemiology, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2University of Sao Paulo, Instituto da Criança do Hospital das Clínicas, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Background: The most recent data shows that Aids epidemic appears to have stabilized in most regions of the world, although prevalence continues to increase in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and in other parts of Asia due to high rates of new HIV infections. The estimated number of AIDS-related deaths in 2008 is approximately 10% lower than in 2004. The objetive of the present study was to analyze the trends in AIDS incidence and mortality rates in Brazil in the HAART-era
Methods: An ecological time-series study was carried out, between 1998 and 2008, for Brazil. Incidence data was obtained from the Laboratory Tests Control System (SISCEL-MS) and from the Notifiable Diseases National Information System (SINAN-MS), while and mortality data was obtained from Mortality Information System (SIM-MS) of the Ministry of Health. Time-series were analyzed according to age group (under 13 years, from 13 to 19 years and 20 years and older) using polynomial regression models.
Results: During the study period, 367,807 cases and 121,012 deaths from AIDS were recorded in Brazil. There was reduction in incidence rates for age group under 13 years (y=2.81-0.08x-0.03x2; r2=0,63; p=0.018) and age group 20 years and older (y=31.96-0.29x+0.13x2; r2=0,75; p=0.008) while stability was observed for age group 13 to 19 years (y=2.58-0.03x; r2=0.19; p=0.183). Reductions in mortality series were observed for age group under 13 years (y=0.48-0.04x+0.00x2; r2=0.97; p< 0.001) and age group 20 years and older (y=10.03-0.17x; r2=0.89; p< 0.001) whereas stability in mortality rates was observed for age group 13 to 19 years (y=0.39-0.00x; r2=0.00; p=0.991).
Conclusions: The reduction in AIDS incidence and mortality rates was not observed only for age group 13 to 19 years, showing that prevention, control measures and HAART utilization for adolescents should be revised.
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